As the October 31st Brexit deadline draws closer, Johnson’s threat to take the UK out of the EU without or with a deal is growing ever scarier. However, it seems that if Johnson wishes to proceed with a no deal Brexit, he could well have a fight on his hands. But, can MPs block a no deal brexit?
Corbyn To Table Vote of No Confidence
A growing number of Labour and other opposition MPs have said that they'll try and block Johnson from leaving the EU without a deal. The leader of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, has said that he is planning to submit a vote of no confidence against Johnson. If the PM loses, the government will then be replaced with a temporary administration with a new PM, if one can be agreed upon. If a new PM cannot be agreed then a general election will called.
However, it is not clear at this stage that Corbyn has the support to pass a vote of no confidence and many fear that such a move will simply waste valuable time ahead of the Brexit.
MPs To Attempt To Legislate Against No Deal Brexit
An alternate group of opposition MPs are instead investigating whether they are able to legislate against Johnson effecting a no deal Brexit. These MPs are hoping they can replicate the action taken by backbenchers earlier in the year who were able to take control of the Commons order paper in order to demand that Theresa May request an extension to Brexit.
However, the “Cooper-Letwin” bill, named after MPs Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin who sponsored the legislation is not an easy piece of parliamentary manoeuvring and MPs are operating within a very limited time frame. Opposition MPs are hoping to use Common Standing Order 24 to schedule an emergency debate, which could allow legislation against a no deal Brexit to be passed. However, the decision to go down this route will rest with House of Commons Speaker John Bercow.
Where Does Bercow Stand?
Bercow has reiterated his view that he intends to make sure that parliament has the final say on Brexit, and has previously drawn criticism from leave MPs for seemingly siding with pro-remain MPs in key decisions in the past.
However, even if MPs are successful in passing legislation which requires Johnson to ask for an extension to Article 50 they would need to be sure that the terms of the legislation were watertight to stop Johnson from taking any counter measures. For example, Johnson could request an Article 50 extension, as per the legislation, but then reject the extension terms offered by the leaders.
Can Johnson Overrule Parliament?
During her attempts at delivering Brexit, Theresa May was reportedly told by the Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, that parliament had the final say and if they passed a bill to delay Brexit. However, Johnson has taken a far tougher stance, cautioning MPs not to go against the will of the people as outlined in the 2016 referendum. With this in mind, it is likely that Johnson will use any and all means to get around any parliamentary bill. However, if parliament succeeds in passing a bill to delay Brexit, Johnson could not simply overrule it as this would be a breach of the law. If Johnson wished to proceed with such a route, it would end up in court where Johnson would argue that he is representing “the people vs the politicians”, though it seems unlikely that he would in such an argument.
Technical Perspective
Continued weakness in GBP is keeping the FTSE underpinned at current levels. Following heavy declines recently, the index has since found support along the 7077.4 level. However, for now, price is respecting a local bearish trend line, creating a descending triangle pattern, which suggests the risk of further losses. 7077.4 remains the key downside level to watch while any topside move will need to quickly see a break of 7300.3 to negate the near term bearish bias.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.