Daily Market Outlook, April 10, 2026

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Asian markets advanced, marking their first weekly gain since the onset of the Middle East conflict, as investors held a cautiously optimistic outlook ahead of US-Iran negotiations scheduled for this weekend. Meanwhile, oil prices were on track for their most significant weekly decline in nine months. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed by 0.8% after President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Iran, even as he warned Tehran of potential fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Technology stocks, perceived to be less affected by the conflict, led the charge, with South Korea—a key indicator for AI investments—seeing an impressive rise of 1.7%. In general financial markets have broadly kept their composure overnight, with price moves remaining relatively subdued despite mounting tensions around the US-Iran ceasefire. Investors appear to be looking ahead with cautious optimism—placing their bets on productive diplomatic talks expected to unfold in Pakistan this weekend—rather than reacting to Donald Trump's pointed social media accusations that Tehran has violated commitments related to the Strait of Hormuz. Asian equity markets followed Wall Street's upward momentum, while oil prices held steady near their London close levels, reinforcing the sense that markets are choosing hope over headlines. Adding a layer of nuance to the overnight session was the release of China's latest inflation figures for March. Consumer price inflation eased slightly to 1.0% year over year—down 0.3 percentage points and a touch below market expectations. More notably, producer price inflation made a decisive turnaround, swinging from deflation at -0.9% in February to a positive 0.5% this time around. While it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, this divergence hints at an intriguing dynamic: in China, the ripple effects of elevated oil prices appear to be filtering through to factory gates yet are finding little traction at the consumer level — likely a reflection of persistently soft domestic demand. The story looks set to be quite different when US inflation data lands later today. American consumers have directly experienced the impact of rising gasoline prices at the pump, and this pressure is anticipated to directly affect the motor fuel component of the CPI basket, potentially raising the headline inflation rate by as much as one percentage point to 3.4% year-on-year. The more pressing question for the Federal Reserve is whether this energy-driven surge bleeds into broader price categories. If the core inflation rate rises only slightly — by approximately 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% — it would indicate that the spillover remains contained for the time being. However, the risk of more widespread price pressures building in the months ahead cannot be dismissed. For Fed policymakers, carefully tracking how energy cost shocks transmit through the wider economy will be central to shaping their response strategy. That said, meaningful analysis takes time, and with the picture still evolving, any immediate shift in interest rates at upcoming FOMC meetings looks unlikely.

Next week will bring a heavy slate of central bank commentary, especially from the ECB and BoE rather than the Fed. Midweek events in Washington, including those linked to the IIF Global Outlook Forum, are likely to drive much of the speaking activity. Among current Fed officials, Williams on Friday appears to be the most prominent speaker, while Warsh’s expected Senate Banking Committee hearing for the Fed Chair role now seems likely to be delayed. For the ECB, Lagarde is scheduled on Tuesday, followed by Schnabel, Lane, Villeroy, and Kocher on Thursday. On the BoE side, Bailey appears three times across Tuesday and Wednesday, with Mann, Greene, and Taylor also on the calendar. Although some of Bailey’s remarks may focus on topics outside near-term rate decisions, such as stablecoins, the overall volume of appearances makes this an important week for markets to monitor. This matters even more because blackout periods will soon begin ahead of the next round of policy meetings at the end of April, when the BoJ, Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoC are all due to announce decisions. If the ceasefire continues to hold, many policymakers may use it next week to reinforce the "wait-and-see" stance they signalled in March. Beyond speakers, the Fed’s Beige Book is due on Wednesday. The data calendar is otherwise relatively quiet, with the UK's February monthly GDP on Thursday standing out the most. After stagnant growth in January, weaker retail activity in February, and disruption from doctors’ strikes in April, expectations for UK growth in early 2026 remain soft. In the euro area, final March inflation figures are also due on Thursday.

Overnight Headlines

US Inflation In Focus As Energy Shock Clouds Price Growth Outlook
Bond Traders Hedge Against More Losses As Inflation Data Looms
Warsh Fed Confirmation Delayed As Hearing Plans Hit Snag
Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Bessent, Powell Warning To Bank CEOs
Trump Warns Iran Not To Charge Fees For Ships Transiting Hormuz
Oil Holds Gain After Attacks Lower Saudi Production Capacity
North Sea Oil Prices Hit Record High As Iran Keeps Hold Over Hormuz
Netanyahu-Trump Divisions On Iran War Threaten To Box In US
Israeli PM Authorises Talks With Lebanon Following Trump Intervention
South Korea To Send Envoy To Iran As Hormuz Remains Blocked
South Korea Holds Rates Steady As Iran War Fans Inflation
China Factory Prices Return To Growth On Surging Oil Prices
EU Boosts Russian Gas Imports As MidEast Crisis Squeezes Supplies
Fast Retailing At Record High After The Uniqlo Owner Lifts Profit Forecast

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

Friday 10/04
EURUSD: 1.1520 (€832m), 1.1530 (€1.9bn), 1.1700 (€909m), 1.1740 (€607m), 1.1800 (€1.3bn)
USDJPY: 158.00 ($1.9bn), 160.00 ($967m)
GBPUSD: 1.3500 (£572m)
USDCAD: 1.3815 ($511m)
EURGBP: 0.8700 (€600m)
Monday 13/04
EURUSD: 1.1450 (€1.3bn), 1.1640 (€745m), 1.1650 (€970m), 1.1700 (€580m)
USDJPY: 157.50 ($544m)
GBPUSD: 1.3550 (£505m)
USDCAD: 1.3700 ($770m), 1.3900 ($634m)

CFTC Positions as of April 3, 2026:

Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 138,404 contracts to 1,586,840
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 142,176 contracts to 784,063
Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 855 contracts to 1,637,324
Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 11,058 contracts to 268,129
Speculators switch CBOT US Treasury bonds futures to a net short position of 31,633 contracts (vs. 6,570 net longs a week ago)
Bitcoin net long position is 2,253 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -29,871 contracts
British pound net short position is -52,665 contracts
Euro net long position is 507 contracts
Japanese yen net short position is -72,872 contracts
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 113,496 contracts to 215,932
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 39,730 contracts to 912,682.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 6700 Target 6900
Below 6690 Target 6585

DXY

Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 100 Target 100.50
Below 99.50 Target 97.50

EURUSD

Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.1650 Target 1.1750
Below 1.1640 Target 1.1550

GBPUSD

Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3350 Target 1.3550
Below 1.3340 Target 1.3290

USDJPY

Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 159 Target 161.50
Below 158 Target 157.50

XAUUSD

Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 4600 Target 5000
Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD

Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 79.5k Target 81.5k
Below 78k Target 53k