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Daily Market Outlook, November 11, 2022
“Asian markets surged higher overnight, taking their lead from mammoth gains in US markets, with US equity markets adding three trillion dollars of value as US inflation softened. US CPI came in at 7.7% down from the prior print of 8.2%, with the core metric (excluding energy & food) coming in at 6.3% down from 6.6%. The softer data saw a ‘bad news, good news’ response from markets,, risk appetite abounded as markets viewed the data as giving cover to the FOMC to slow the rate of rate hikes and potentially lower the terminal rate, the Dollar dived, with the Yen advancing the most in a single session since 1998 as US yields collapsed. Fed speakers struck a cautious tone yesterday, maintaining their mantra of rate rises required to stem inflation risks. Market focus shifts to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment release due this afternoon, sentiment reached a six year high last month, supported by a robust labour market coupled with lower gasoline prices in the US also adding fuel to confidence, recent rises in gasoline prices may hamper expectations for today's print, with market watchers looking for a small pullback from the 59.9 last month to an anticipated 59.5 today...”
Overnight Headlines
SP500 & Nasdaq Add $3 Trillion In Value In A Single Day As Inflation Cools - RTRS
Dollar Dives As Investors Cheer After US Inflation Misses Forecasts - RTRS
Weakening Yen Trend May Be History As CPI Print Slams Dollar - BBG
FTX Looks For $9.4 Bln In Rescue Funds From Investors, Rivals - RTRS
FTX's US Crypto Exchange: Trading May Be Halted In A Few Days - BBG
FTX’s Assets Frozen By Bahamas Securities Regulator - BBG
China Eases Quarantine Rules, Flight Bans In Covid Zero Pivot - BBG
China Year-End Export Bounce In Doubt As Global Demand Falters - RTRS
China’s Bank Loans Lowest Since 2017 As Economy Slows - BBG
China May Inject Cash Soon As $139-Billion Maturity Wall Looms - BBG
Inflation Report Leaves Fed On Track For 0.5-Point Rate Rise In December - WSJ
Fed’s Mester Sees Larger Policy Risks From Too Little Tightening - BBG
Fed's George Calls For 'More Measured' Pace Of Rate Hikes - RTRS
Biden Seeks To Build 'Floor' For China Relations In Xi Meeting - RTRS
UK PM Sunak ‘Confident’ Of Fixing Post-Brexit Deal In N. Ireland - BBG
Rishi Sunak Considers ‘Growth Visas’ To Bring In Skilled Workers - Telegraph
Oil Crawls Higher On US Hopes, But COVID Rise In China Caps Gains - RTRS
Gold Eyes Best Week Since March On Hopes Of Less Aggressive Fed - RTRS
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3925
Technicals
Primary support is 3925
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3915 opens a test of 3860
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0150
Technicals
Primary support is 1.0150
Primary upside objective is 1.0284
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.02
Failure below 1.0150 opens a test of 1.0090
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0000 (1.87BLN), 1.0035 (499M), 1.0050-60 (1.1BLN) 1.0065 (303M), 1.0150 (331M), 1.0200 (609M)1.0240-50 (2.34BLN)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1640
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1640
Primary upside objective 1.20
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.18
Failure below 1.1620 opens a test of 1.1570
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1600 (603M), 1.1850 (303M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (319M), 0.8700 (349M), 0.8800 (330M)
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143.25
143.25 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary resistance is 143.25
Primary downside objective is 139.25
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 140
Acceptance above 143.85 opens a test of 145
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 141.40 (315M), 141.75 (284M), 144.40-40 (550M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6550
.6590 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is .6550
Primary upside objective is .6720
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6660
Failure below .6520 opens a test of .6460
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6475 (624M), 0.6575 (805M), 0.6600 (303M)
USD/CAD: 1.3620 (1.07BLN)
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800
Technicals
Intraday 16800 is primary support
Primary upside objective is 19300
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 18300
Failure below 16800 opens a test of 15500
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!