SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 16/7/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~35 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6220/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6384 SUP 6204
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6280/90
DAILY RANGE RES 6332 SUP 6215
2 SIGMA RES 6391 SUP 6157
GAP LEVELS 6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX BULL JULY CONTRACT BEAR ZONE 21.35 DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.75
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE - 6341/6246
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
LONG ON TEST/REJECT WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES OVERVIEW: POOR BREADTH
Date: 15 July 2025 |
Key Indices:
- S&P: -40bps, closing at 6,243 with MOC $840m to BUY
- NDX: +13bps at 22,884
- R2K: -202bps at 2,217
- Dow: +98bps at 44,023
Market Stats:
- Total volume: 16.8b shares traded across U.S. equity exchanges, aligning with YTD daily average of 16.8b shares.
- VIX: +110bps at 17.39
- Crude: -45bps at $66.68
- US 10YR yield: +5bps at 4.48%
- Gold: -66bps at $3,336
- DXY: +55bps at 98.62
- Bitcoin: -323bps at $116,381
Market Dynamics:
Equities displayed weak breadth, driven by:
1. NVDA surging +4% after securing approval from Trump to sell its H20 AI chip in China.
2. Benign CPI data but slightly firmer implications for PCE, with yields breaking out (30Y >5%) and small caps declining (-2%). PCE forecast for June adjusted to 0.29% vs. 0.25% prior.
3. Mixed Financials earnings: beats (C) and misses (WFC, STT, BLK), with misses punished heavily.
Sector Highlights:
- Crypto-sensitive stocks (HOOD, CRCL, COIN) dropped after House Republicans failed to progress procedural motions for crypto bills and defense spending legislation.
- Healthcare traded weakly without clear drivers. Notable moves:
- GILD: -3% ahead of MRK HIV event Thursday.
- Tools: Aglient fell -6% on surprise CFO departure.
- UNH: -3% after negative press from Bloomberg regarding asset sales.
Trading Floor Activity:
- Activity levels rated 5/10.
- Floor finished flat vs. 30-day avg of +30bps.
- LOs: Slight net sellers, with supply in discretionary and macro products offset by demand in financials and tech.
- HFs: Small net buyers, driven by demand in staples and tech.
TMT EPS SETUP FOR NEXT WEEK:
Subsector Sentiment:
- Semis: Most crowded group in TMT.
- Telco/Media: Increase in idiosyncratic longs.
- Software: Sentiment downbeat with exceptions.
- IT Services/Agencies: Maximum negative sentiment.
Super Cap Sentiment (10=max long, 1=max short):
- NVDA: 10 – universally loved.
- MSFT: 9 – core long for most portfolios.
- META: 8.5 – well-held but caution increasing.
- AVGO: 8 – below NVDA but still favored.
- AMZN: 8 – well-held but debated (tariffs/2H AWS growth).
- GOOGL: 6.5 – out-of-favor with MFs and HFs.
- AAPL: 4 – largely negative sentiment.
GS PRIME L/S RATIO CHARTS:
- Semis: At multi-year highs.
- Software: At multi-year lows.
- Internet: High absolute L/S ratio but middle of range.
Notable: NVDA's market cap now approaches 90% of the entire SX5E (4.1tr vs. 4.8tr).
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!